Photo: Jon Cherry/Getty Images
The 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive contests in the country this year – and an unexpected pickup opportunity for Democrats in a perennial swing state that has trended away from them in recent cycles.
The race features a showdown between businessman and former 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy on the Republican ticket and former Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton on the Democrat ticket. Democrats believe that Acton has a real shot of winning back the governor’s mansion for the first time in 15 years, while Republicans believe that Acton’s role in enacting strict lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic will sink her chances.
On paper, Ohio should not be this close. Republican Governor Mike DeWine won re-election by more than 25 points in 2022, and President Donald Trump carried the state by more than 11 points in 2024. Republicans have also won every Ohio executive-branch race since 2010. Yet the latest RealClearPolling average has Acton ahead of Ramaswamy by 0.2 points – a statistical tie – as Republicans contend with a difficult national midterm environment.
That represents a remarkable shift from the early shape of the contest. An Emerson College poll in August 2025 showed Ramaswamy leading Acton by 10 points. By early June, Fox News had Acton ahead by one, and a July New York Times/Siena survey showed an exact tie. Acton also avoided a bruising primary after former Congressman Tim Ryan passed on a run, leaving her unopposed for the Democrat nomination.
Acton has used that opening to present herself as a pragmatic, bipartisan problem-solver rather than a liberal partisan. She has described the governor’s role as a “convener and a catalyzer and a problem solver” and argues that “95 percent” of what she hears from Ohioans is not fundamentally partisan. Her campaign has emphasized affordability, education, and jobs, while endorsements from Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly have reinforced her moderate image.
But there is an obvious counterpoint to the idea that Acton is a candidate with few vulnerabilities: her record as “Ohio’s Fauci” during the COVID-19 pandemic.
As state health director, Acton became the public face of some of the nation’s earliest and most aggressive pandemic restrictions. Working under DeWine, she issued and defended stay-at-home orders and sweeping business restrictions as Ohio suffered record layoffs. Restaurants sued over closure rules, gym owners successfully challenged enforcement of one order in court, and retailers mounted their own legal challenge to the state’s shutdown authority.
Acton did not act alone – DeWine was governor and publicly defended the administration’s decisions – but she signed many of the health orders and became their most recognizable advocate. By June 2020, after less than 16 months as health director, she resigned amid intense backlash, lawsuits, and protests, although she stayed on temporarily as a senior health adviser.
Acton today points to that period as evidence that she can lead through crisis. Republicans argue that she displayed an alarming affinity for abusing government power.
Acton is also discovering the difficulty of running as a self-styled moderate in a Democrat coalition increasingly intolerant of departures from progressive orthodoxy. After the Toledo Blade asked about transgender athletes, Acton said, “I do not support boys playing in girls sports. This is already settled law in Ohio, and as governor I will enforce and uphold the law.”
That might have appeased some moderate Democrats, but the backlash from LGBTQ+ activists was swift. Maria Bruno, executive director of Ohioans Against Extremism, called Acton’s attempt to “triangulate” on the issue “frustrating,” while Equality Ohio later downgraded her rating.
Acton has likewise broken with most elected Ohio Democrats by supporting Issue 3, which would place the state’s existing Voter ID requirement in the Ohio Constitution. Those positions may help her with swing voters, but they also risk depressing enthusiasm among the very progressive activists she will need in November.
Ramaswamy, for his part, has made some campaign-trail missteps and clearly has not yet consolidated the advantage Republicans would normally expect in Ohio. But he also has a political strength that could matter down the stretch – he is willing to go almost anywhere and talk to almost anyone.
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Ramaswamy embraced old-fashioned retail politics with unusual intensity, holding hundreds of in-person events. In an era when many politicians stay inside carefully managed media bubbles, that willingness to take questions face-to-face can be an asset.
One issue giving both candidates plenty to answer for is data centers, which are rapidly becoming a defining issue in both the governor’s race and Ohio’s marquee U.S. Senate contest.
Acton announced late last month that she supports a conditional moratorium on new projects unless developers meet requirements on utility costs, union labor, transparency, environmental standards, and community benefits. Ramaswamy has proposed a different bargain: if a data center is built in a community, nearby residents should receive free home electricity and lower property taxes, along with guarantees on air and water quality and protections for farmland.
The stakes in Ohio extend well beyond the governor’s mansion. If Republicans cannot comfortably carry a state Trump won by double digits just two years ago, it would be an ominous sign for GOP candidates across the country. If Ramaswamy can regain his footing and win decisively, however, it would suggest that the national headwinds facing Republicans have real limits.
Either way, Ohio is shaping up to be one of the clearest tests of the political environment heading into November.
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